mcm 2024 market update

I've been getting some questions on the DMV housing market for mid-centuries so I thought I'd share my thoughts and hot takes.

Rewind to 2021 - When my husband and I were searching for a home, I became obsessed with the DMV housing market data for mid-century modern homes and neighborhoods. I might argue that you kind of had to be obsessive in that competitive landscape. I even created a google sheet of all homes sold in the last three years, aggregating home selling prices for each neighborhood we were considering. The unfortunate reality during that time is that those prices (e.g., 2018-2020 data) were much lower than what houses were selling at when we were looking and those prices have only increased since then.

We finally found the right house when we snuck into an open house during Memorial Day weekend. Due to the holiday there was little competition on offers but we still managed to pay well over what we had expected to when we set out on the buying journey. I have kept a close eye on the market for the last 3 1/2 years, watching homes sell (or not sell) in my neighborhood, assessing sales in the Virginia and Maryland markets, looking for the rare DC MCM gem (one is still on the market right now near Rock Creek Park for 1.6M) and of course, monitoring interest rates, which really haven't significantly dipped in a way that makes me want to spend well above my means. Below I pontificate on the 2024 housing market and make some evidence-based (?) predictions for 2025 - please don't hold me to them!

My 2024 Hot Takes

Homes sat for longer but prices continued to rise

There were anywhere from 2 to 10 homes on the market in our neighborhood at any given point this year. Homes were not selling like hotcakes as in previous years. Instead, a house would go on MLS, host an open house, then usually sit for three weeks to two months. I watched other homes sit for even longer. What was shocking to me, however, is that these homes still were able to get asking or above asking by 25-50K, despite the fact that they were sitting for a while. These prices were also well above what we witnessed in 2021. To figure out if this was a consistent trend across the DMV, I've pulled the median sale prices in the closest suburban counties, which increased across the board from 2023 to 2024.

• Fairfax County, VA: Median sold prices increased 10.7% from 2023 to 2024.

• Alexandria City, VA: Median sold prices increased 15.6% from 2023 to 2024.

• Frederick County, MD: Median sold prices increased 6.9% from 2023 to 2024.

• Prince Georges County, MD: Median sold prices increased 4.9% from 2023 to 2024.

When the DMV really shines - September! And a view of our forested surroundings.

Buyers were more willing to buy a home in need of a remodel

I spent a lot of time worrying about the ugliness of our kitchen after we bought our house. Because we knew we'd be moving within 4-5 years, it did not make sense to drop $30,000 on a fancy, new kitchen. But I was concerned that the black cabinets, dated style, and general darkness of the room would be a huge turnoff to a buyer or that we'd have to reduce the price significantly. As readers are aware, we got creative, updated the cabinets and hardware and only spent $6,000. But maybe I didn't even need to do that? Since then I've watched homes with kitchens that have not been updated since 1995 go for close to $1 million. This might be upsetting to you if you're a buyer but it seems that location, lot size, and the desire to design one's kitchen may override the need for a new kitchen.

2025 Predictions

Interest rates will go down slightly, but not enough to rock the market

This isn't a very bullish take but I think buyers and sellers (and owners who want to refinance) will continue to be disappointed with the movement in interest rates. If we see a decrease, it will be incremental but it won't be enough to move the market or push someone into paying 200K more for a house.

We were lucky that our home did not require a major renovation and much of the original finishes were kept intact.

The new administration's back to office policy will continue to fuel the DMV market

The DMV has always boasted a healthy housing market. When we bought our house, I found personal comfort in the 2008-09 housing market data, which shows a massive downturn for nearly every market in the country, except for DC, New York City, and San Francisco. In speaking with a few friends familiar with the transition in the agencies, a major concern for federal workers is that they will be required to be in the office four days a week. I work with many federal employees in my day job and during COVID, a significant number moved out of the DMV and now work remote in different states. I assume many of these folks will look for other opportunities but some will have to make the move back to DC, bringing a swarm of homebuyers to an already packed market.

An authentic MCM will always be more valuable to buyers than a high modern one

Original post and beam in our home

I took note of this during the Hollin Hills home tour and can attest it is true for myself - when looking for an MCM, most people find value in the historic aspects of the home. For homes in my neighborhood (Holmes Run Acres), this includes the original, exposed beam ceilings, wood floors that have been well maintain, the original exterior design, brick fireplaces, and floor to ceiling windows. This does not mean the house has not been updated but rather the past owners have honored the home through historic restoration. I have sadly watched many a developer come into our neighborhood and "flip" a home, changing every aspect of the original design. These homes sit on the market for months and end up selling well under asking. At the Hollin Hills home tour, I admired gorgeous high modern renovations, but I did feel like much of the original charm was stripped from the home.

Those are my thoughts! Please share yours in the comments!